AGP Executive Report

India-Japan Energy Security: Modi and Japan PM Sanae Takaichi announced a roadmap that includes strategic stockpiling cooperation and deeper energy resilience ties, aiming to blunt oil-supply shocks. Oil Market Mood: Oil slid for a third straight day as talks around the Strait of Hormuz eased disruption fears, with analysts warning the market may be overcalling a glut. India’s Gulf Risk Prep: Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said India must expand oil and fuel storage while prices are low, after the Gulf crisis exposed gaps. Refining Trade Flip: Reuters reports Russia is importing gasoline from India as Ukrainian strikes hit Russian refining capacity; India’s refiners sell back refined fuel via traders. EV Import Savings: An SBI report says EV adoption could cut India’s crude import bill by Rs 1 lakh crore by 2030 if EVs reach a 20% share. Renewables Finance: Inox Clean Energy raised INR 700 crore from Adar Poonawalla Family Office to expand renewables and manufacturing. South Asia Investment Push: Pakistan met China’s Shandong Xinxu, discussing upgrades like FCC refinery units, offshore work, and LNG-linked “energy cities.” Offshore Wind Diplomacy: Belgium told Malaysia it wants to cooperate on offshore energy, including scaling offshore wind.

Indo-Pacific diplomacy: Philippines President Marcos heads to Canada to deepen cooperation on Indo-Pacific peace and security, with energy and mining among business priorities. India-Japan economic security: Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi arrives for the 16th India-Japan summit, with a focus on semiconductors, critical minerals, clean energy and energy security—framing India as a post-China supply-chain hub. Oil & markets: Oil eases after US-Iran indirect talks progress, helping India’s rupee and equities, though foreign investors keep trimming Asia exposure. ASEAN food risk: A strengthening El Nino could intensify food and fertiliser shocks across Southeast Asia, adding pressure to energy-linked costs. Energy transition hardware: VEICHI launches C&I solar-plus-storage and microgrid solutions, while Firmus signs a 12-year supply deal for 600 MW firm power backed by renewables and battery storage for AI factory campuses in South Australia. Power sector buildout: India’s industrial output rises 5.1% in May, with electricity and manufacturing leading, alongside record crude imports in June despite West Asia tensions. Regional gas strategy: A report argues ASEAN needs cross-border integration of grids and “clean molecules” to handle supply shocks.

Japan–Bangladesh Energy Boost: Japan will raise energy-sector support to Bangladesh from $312m to $500m, with JICA-linked infrastructure progress reviewed, including the Matarbari deep-sea port and MRT. India–Japan LNG Security: India and Japan are set to sign an LNG supply security pact, with talks on a joint task force for LNG stockpiling and information-sharing ahead of the Modi–Takaichi summit. Russia–India Fuel Swap: Russia has started importing gasoline from India by sea (at least 60,000 tonnes shipped), as Ukrainian strikes disrupt Russian refining and trigger shortages. US–China Clean-Tech Clash: The US is reportedly drafting a ban on imports of Chinese energy inverters, raising fears of politicizing clean-energy supply chains. Grid Reliability in India: ACME Suryodaya commissioned a 240.72 MWh Rajasthan BESS project, adding to India’s storage buildout. Market Watch: India’s passenger EV registrations jumped ~90% in Q1 FY27, while Nayara and other firms cut petrol/diesel and ATF/commercial LPG prices as West Asia tensions ease. Energy Diplomacy: ASEAN–Russia energy cooperation was highlighted as a timely hedge against Strait of Hormuz-linked market shocks.

Humanoid Robotics in China: AgiBot says its cumulative general-purpose humanoid robots topped 15,000 units, hitting the 10,000 mark just 90 days earlier and moving from prototypes into real factory use. US-China Solar Supply Chain: Reuters reports the Trump administration is drafting a ban on Chinese solar inverters, citing cybersecurity risks and grid protection—following similar Europe restrictions. Korea’s AI Power Push: KKR and SK Inc. will combine renewables into a 2 trillion won platform to supply electricity for AI data centres and industry, starting with 1.7 GW operating capacity. India Fuel Relief (and limits): Nayara cut petrol by Rs 5/litre and diesel by Rs 3/litre across its 7,000+ stations as West Asia tensions ease; public sector retailers kept prices unchanged. India Export Taxes: India lowered windfall taxes on diesel and ATF exports from July 1 while raising petrol export duty, aiming to protect domestic supply. Oil Market Mood: Oil prices slid sharply as the Strait of Hormuz reopened unevenly and traders priced a fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Japan Macro Watch: Japan’s BOJ Tankan showed business confidence at an eight-year high, with AI/chip demand offsetting Middle East risks, while the yen stays near 40-year lows. Energy Storage Buildout: Adani Green operationalised 156 MW renewables plus 185 MWh BESS in Gujarat; Acme Solar commissioned 240.7 MWh BESS in Rajasthan; Ceigall signed a PPA for a 220 MW solar-plus-BESS project in Madhya Pradesh. Policy for Clean Hydrogen: India launched a Green Hydrogen Certification Portal to make green claims auditable and easier to verify for markets and investors.

East Asia Maritime Risk: Japan protested after China installed a mobile offshore drilling rig near the East China Sea median line, raising concerns about exploratory gas drilling and reviving calls for joint development talks. South Asia Renewables Push: Sri Lanka reaffirmed its climate plan to meet 70% of energy demand with renewables by 2030, pointing to its updated NDC for 2026-2035. US-China Grid Tension: The FCC is drafting a rule that could ban imports of Chinese solar and battery inverters for new models, citing potential grid disruption risks. India Macro + Energy Costs: India’s inflation outlook may stay contained as crude and urea prices ease, while the RBI said an interim US-Iran peace deal could help normalise supply chains but oil dependence keeps risks alive. Clean Power Delivery: India’s Ministry of Power proposed public access to renewable energy datasets under a National Electricity Data Sharing Framework. Wind Growth in India: Suzlon won a 105 MW order for its S175 platform in Karnataka, marking the turbine’s commercial debut with Sunsure. LNG Outlook: Shell expects LNG demand to rise to nearly 700 million tonnes by 2050, with Hormuz disruptions still shaping near-term supply. Oil Market Watch: UAE crude and condensate exports hit record highs after leaving OPEC, helped by resumed Hormuz flows and supply ramp-ups.

Yen Watch: Japan’s finance minister says authorities are ready to act as the yen slid past ¥162 per dollar, reviving intervention speculation after a record ¥11.7tn support push. Power Demand: India’s peak power demand is back above 250 GW as a weak monsoon and heatwaves keep cooling needs elevated, with contingency plans to protect supply. Oil & Shipping: India’s crude basket has fallen below $70/bbl, while India eases wartime fuel sale curbs for commercial buyers from July 1 as Hormuz-linked disruptions cool. Energy Security & Climate: The GEF approved about $14m in grants for Pacific climate adaptation projects in Fiji, FSM, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Renewables Finance: Allens advised GuarantCo on a pioneering green bond guarantee for Vietnam rooftop solar, a boost for local-currency clean energy funding. Grid Storage Buildout: Sigenergy broke ground on Phase II of its Nantong intelligent energy center and a joint venture for storage components. Industrial Risk: A massive fire hit India’s Haldia oil refinery pipeline, injuring several workers.

EV Push in India (Air Quality): Delhi’s EV Policy 2.0 was approved with a 150 billion rupee plan over four years, including a scrappage incentive of about $1,060 for eligible car owners, road-tax and registration fee exemptions for battery EVs up to 3 million rupees, and a phase-out timetable that ends petrol/CNG two-wheeler registrations from 2028; it also targets 32,000 EV chargers to cut pollution. Clean Power + Storage (Rajasthan): Serentica Renewables says it will invest INR 1 lakh crore in Rajasthan, with 2,500 MW already operating and 3,000 MW under construction, aiming for firm “round-the-clock” renewable supply backed by BESS. Nuclear Hydrogen Milestone (India): India’s Department of Atomic Energy commissioned a copper–chlorine thermochemical hydrogen facility using nuclear heat from the FBTR at Kalpakkam, a step toward carbon-free hydrogen at scale. Battery Supply Deal (India–China): Lineage Power signed a 3 GWh LFP battery cell supply agreement with Rongjie Energy Tech to support its BESS buildout. Energy Security (West Asia): As US-Iran tensions ease and talks resume, oil volatility remains a live risk for Asia; India also lifted temporary retail petrol/diesel curbs for commercial buyers from July 1. Climate Diplomacy (Pacific): Micronesia and Tuvalu are pushing for a methane pact after El Niño-linked fish kills and reef damage, arguing methane action can’t wait on voluntary pledges.

Offshore Wind Licensing: Canada and Nova Scotia pre-qualified five developers for the first offshore wind bidding round, with firms including DEME, Jan De Nul and China’s Ming Yang—setting up formal tenders later this year. Thermal Power O&M Contract: India’s Bluspring Enterprises jumped after its STEAG unit won a five-year ₹406.43 crore extension for operations and maintenance of Vedanta Power’s 600 MW plant. Oil & Gas Infrastructure Order: Likhitha Infrastructure hit the upper circuit after securing a ₹510 crore pipeline package order from CPECC-Abu Dhabi, boosting its order book. Commodities Court Ruling: India’s Bombay High Court dismissed traders’ pleas over MCX’s 2020 negative crude settlement, keeping the exchange’s mechanism intact. Middle East Energy Shockwatch: Markets tracked US-Iran “stand down” signals and Strait of Hormuz shipping easing, while oil stayed sensitive to renewed Gulf flare-ups. Philippines Solar Boom: The Philippines became the world’s top solar spender as rooftop adoption accelerates amid high power prices and limited subsidies. China Factory Pulse: A Reuters poll points to China’s June factory activity returning to marginal growth, with AI-driven exports helping but inventory build-ups fading. Nuclear Hydrogen Milestone (India): India inaugurated a nuclear-assisted hydrogen plant at Kalpakkam using reactor heat, reinforcing the push for clean fuels beyond electricity. ASEAN AI Infrastructure: Comin Asia and Nokia plan AI-ready data centre deployments across Southeast Asia, targeting power- and policy-constrained markets.

Philippines Offshore Wind Push: Finance chief Frederick Go met Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners to accelerate the 901MW San Miguel Bay offshore wind project, aiming for the first offshore wind farm in the Philippines and a key step for Southeast Asia’s energy security. China Clean Energy Scale-Up: China’s installed power capacity hit 4.01bn kW by end-May, with non-fossil now 62% of the total; meanwhile a 16MW tension-leg floating wind platform sailed in Guangdong to advance deep-sea wind commercialization. Advanced Materials Race: CNBM started three high-performance carbon fiber lines in Jiangsu, boosting supply of general-purpose, high-strength and high-modulus grades for high-end manufacturing. India Energy Security & Diplomacy: India and Seychelles signed trade, digital payments and clean-energy cooperation pacts, while India also eyes discounted Iranian crude under a US sanctions waiver—though some refiners may wait for clearer banking guidance. Geopolitics & Markets: South Korea and Japan reaffirmed denuclearization and revived search-and-rescue drills, underscoring tighter defense coordination amid regional tensions. Nuclear Waste Concern (Japan): Japan restarted a reactor at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, but the move spotlights spent-fuel storage limits and the lack of a permanent disposal plan. Climate Watch: ESA satellites detected early signs of a new El Niño as Pacific sea-surface temperatures warm again.

Japan Earthquake Watch: A 6.1 quake hit northeastern Japan early Sunday off Iwate, with no tsunami warning; operators reported no issues at the Higashidori and Onagawa nuclear sites and at the Rokkasho fuel reprocessing plant. India Renewables Risk: Zurich Group says 90% of India’s planned renewable sites face high or critical climate risk by 2030, urging action now across solar, wind and capital-heavy hydropower. Energy Security—India: EY warns India’s crude import dependence has climbed to just above 90% and urges bigger strategic oil buffers plus faster refining and nuclear/other alternatives. Global South Energy Diplomacy: PM Modi used BRICS 2026 to push a Global South-centered energy vision; US Sec. of State Marco Rubio backed India’s diversification and stability efforts. India Nuclear Hydrogen: India inaugurated a nuclear heat-based hydrogen facility at Kalpakkam using the Cu–Cl process, aiming at scalable low-carbon hydrogen. China–Bangladesh Investment: Eleven Chinese firms proposed $9.21bn for Bangladesh, including gas exploration, waste-to-energy and port/logistics expansion. EV Supply Chain & Trade: Canada’s EV tariff deal will bring Geely’s Lotus EVs to Canada next month, while China’s electric trucks push overseas with subsidies and improving battery economics. Grid Storage: Google-backed Energy Dome’s long-duration CO2 battery project in Ireland targets grid stability and starts operations in 2028.

Energy Security & Trade Disruption: India has eased emergency LPG curbs, restoring non-domestic packed supplies and lifting bulk LPG limits after Strait of Hormuz shipping improved, while Crisil says West Asia risks to India Inc’s FY27 margins should be about half of earlier fears if the truce holds. Clean Mobility Push: India and Japan are lining up a biogas-to-CNG plan aimed at roughly 1,000 methane plants, with Suzuki expected to help scale production. Renewables Manufacturing Drive: Uttar Pradesh is moving to build a Jewar solar manufacturing hub (SAEL) with targets of 20,000 MW renewables in 2–3 years and major cell/module capacity for export-led growth. Regional Geopolitics & Water: China backs Bangladesh’s BRICS and SCO moves and reiterates support for the Teesta project, stressing it’s not aimed at any third party amid India concerns. Finance for Energy Markets: Nasdaq Dubai listed a $500m sukuk from The Arab Energy Fund, underscoring continued capital flow into energy-linked credit. US-India Energy & Trade Diplomacy: Marco Rubio says the US is preparing for a possible Trump visit to India early next year as the bilateral trade deal nears final stages. Infrastructure & Power: China commissioned a dedicated natural gas pipeline for Xiong’an, boosting dual-source supply for cleaner energy transition.

Strait of Hormuz Tension: Iran’s IRGC warned ships they need prior approval to transit the Persian Gulf chokepoint, raising fresh energy-security jitters for India and other importers as the US-Iran ceasefire shows cracks. Oil Market Shock Response: The IEA said it will release a record 400 million barrels to global markets as war-related disruptions cut sea shipments and production, with impacts felt most in Asia and Europe. India Macro Lift From Oil Calm: Goldman Sachs raised India’s 2026 growth forecast to 6.8% after the US-Iran peace deal lowered oil-price risks and eased supply-chain stress. Fuel Price Pass-Through Limits: Despite crude declines, India’s OMCs are unlikely to cut retail fuel prices soon, prioritizing recovery from West Asia under-recoveries. Power Sector Contracting: Bluspring’s STEAG Energy Services won a five-year Rs 406.43 crore extension for O&M of a 600 MW Vedanta thermal plant. Clean Energy Finance for Sri Lanka: ADB approved $57.4m for rooftop solar aggregation and virtual net metering to expand affordable clean power access. China Energy Buildout: China signaled over 20 trillion yuan in planned energy investment for 2026-2030, aiming to expand capacity and absorb AI-driven electricity demand. ASEAN Monetary Caution: Southeast Asian central banks are expected to stay defensive on currencies amid a strong US dollar and lingering second-round inflation risks. Japan Shipping Safety Push: Japan’s shipowners urged action to secure safe passage for vessels stranded near the Persian Gulf as navigation remains unsafe.

BRICS Energy Diplomacy: Ethiopia used the 11th BRICS Energy Ministers’ Meeting in India to pitch itself as a renewables leader, saying it generates over 96% of its energy from renewables and is pushing grid upgrades, storage, and off-grid electrification, alongside plans for peaceful nuclear and green hydrogen. China Power Buildout: China’s installed power capacity crossed 4.01 billion kW by end-May, with renewables at 61% and non-fossil at 62%, underscoring the scale of its low-carbon transition. India Refining Resilience: EY says India’s strong refining capacity helped blunt the West Asia-driven energy shock by reducing the need for large refined-product imports. Oil Market Shockwatch: Oil slid toward pre-Hormuz levels as more tankers exited the Strait, but analysts warn cheaper crude won’t quickly erase the social strain from earlier price spikes. Clean Mobility Moves: India completed a hydrogen train trial between Delhi and Jind at 120 km/h, while China accelerates EV charging—aiming for 40 million chargers by 2030. Renewables Project Pipeline (Odisha): NIRL and OREDA signed a JV for 1,000 MW green energy in Odisha, with solar, wind, storage, and green hydrogen in the mix. Energy Security Policy: The IEA says the Middle East conflict is shifting investment priorities from climate goals toward security—renewables and domestic resources included.

ASEAN Grid Push: Sarawak Energy is driving the ASEAN Power Grid by first strengthening the Borneo network, exporting power to Kalimantan since 2016 and to Sabah since last December, while weighing links to Brunei plus a proposed Sarawak–Singapore subsea cable and interconnection with Peninsular Malaysia. Energy Security at Home: As the Iran war lifts electricity costs and outage fears, households across Southeast Asia are rushing into rooftop solar to cut grid dependence, including in the Philippines and Malaysia. Philippines-US Energy Reform Boost: The US MCC cleared a Philippines grant for energy-sector reforms aimed at lowering power costs and improving reliability, with reports valuing it around $60m. Oil Market Volatility: Saudi Aramco resumed crude loading at Ras Tanura after a near four-month halt, while Iraq’s SOMO issued a July tender for Basra Heavy and Medium linked to global benchmarks. India–US Tech Access: India received assurances that access to advanced AI models won’t face abrupt cutoffs for trusted partners after Anthropic’s Fable suspension. Renewables in Focus: The Philippines is emerging as a fast-growing solar market, with thousands of MW of Chinese panels arriving in early 2026 and offshore wind plans gaining momentum. Climate Stress: Delayed monsoon rains and weak rainfall are triggering water shortages and restrictions in India, hitting cities and farms.

Energy Security & Trade: India restored commercial LPG supplies to pre-West Asia crisis levels, lifting sectoral curbs on non-domestic packed LPG and resuming bulk LPG at 50% of pre-crisis consumption, easing pressure on restaurants, hotels and small industry as Strait of Hormuz flows improve. Oil Markets & Shipping: Oil prices slid back toward pre-Iran-war levels as tanker traffic through Hormuz recovered, while freight rates surged earlier on renewed transit risk—highlighting how quickly Middle East supply swings feed into Asia’s energy costs. Renewables & Power Projects: China’s SANY will invest EUR 240m in Serbia’s Alibunar 1 and 2 wind farms, targeting 460 GWh annually by 2028, while India’s NLC India and OREDA signed a JV for 1 GW renewables in Odisha. Regional Climate Risk: Singapore’s think-tank warned of a red-alert haze risk in Southeast Asia in the second half of 2026, driven by El Niño and deforestation linked to biofuel demand. Geopolitics & Energy Corridors: China defended coast guard patrols east of Taiwan amid European concern, as the area sits on major oil and gas shipping routes. Tech-Enabled Energy Transition: Tencent’s CarbonX backed a Maldives MWh-scale flow battery microgrid to cut costly diesel reliance, pairing storage with floating solar. Diplomacy: Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman met Chinese leaders in Beijing, with cooperation flagged across trade, development and “new energy.”

Middle East Oil Shock Eases: Oil slid back toward pre-Iran-war levels as more tankers cleared the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent around $74/bbl and WTI briefly under $70, while Trump urged faster pump-price cuts. Shipping Watch: Hormuz traffic is improving but still cautious, with mined corridors and radio-silent operations complicating tracking. Japan Earthquake Disruption: Two strong quakes hit Japan’s northeast (6.9–7.2), injuring at least six and suspending some rail and roads; no tsunami and no nuclear irregularities reported. China Power Scale-Up: China’s installed generation capacity topped 4.01 billion kW by end-May, with non-fossil power now 62% of the total. Grid & Renewables Link: Henan exported 70.21 million kWh of renewables to Shanghai this summer, showing growing green-power trading across provinces. AI Meets Power in China: Envision says it will ramp AI-energy integration, betting data centers need cheap, reliable electricity. India Energy Security Push: Grid India is urging gas plants to prepare for extra fuel needs amid below-normal monsoon risk, while India also expands domestic coal use at imported-coal plants. Finance for Transition: DBS backed Asia’s energy transition with $210m financing for clean infrastructure via Clifford Capital’s Fast-P vehicle. Trade Tensions: WTO agreed to form a panel on China’s complaint against India’s solar and IT measures, keeping the solar tariff fight alive.