AGP Executive Report

Power Crunch in Bangladesh: Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman apologised for power and gas shortages, blaming limited LNG storage/regasification and promising relief in days, as experts say more renewables investment could have prevented the crisis. India Oil-Price Pressure: Indian markets opened weaker as Iran-war worries kept crude near $90; Sensex slid ~455 points and Nifty ~0.4%, with India VIX rising. Fuel Policy Fight: CEA V Anantha Nageswaran backs keeping E10 available for older vehicles amid the E20 rollout debate, arguing compatibility and efficiency impacts are manageable. India Solar Build-Out: India added 14.3 GW of solar in early FY27, while a separate report says clean power capacity has crossed a majority share in India’s utility mix for the first time. Grid Rules for Renewables: India allows renewable plants to pay to keep grid connectivity after delays, aiming to speed approvals. EV Charging Interop: Pulse Energy joined Unified Bharat eCharge so drivers can find chargers and pay via UPI in BHIM without extra apps/wallets. China Solar Slowdown: China’s solar industry faces slower installations and overcapacity, shifting toward higher-efficiency tech, storage and system integration. Arctic Shipping Leap: Sea Legend launched weekly China-Europe Arctic container sailings via Russia’s Northern Sea Route, targeting faster routes for new-energy cargo. Japan Growth Drag: Japan’s Q2 GDP slowed to 0.3% QoQ (1.1% annualised), complicating BoJ rate plans as energy costs and the weak yen bite. Myanmar-Russia Energy Links: Min Aung Hlaing’s first Russia visit as president highlights nuclear and refinery cooperation tied to Dawei and a small-scale nuclear plant deal. Solar Manufacturing Push (India): Agastya Green Energy plans INR 7,800 crore to build 12 GW ingot and 12 GW wafer capacity in Andhra Pradesh.

Middle East Oil Flows: Iran resumed crude loading at Kharg Island after a 25-day shutdown, underscoring how Tehran is rerouting around Strait of Hormuz disruptions while “dark fleet” shipments keep global supplies steadier than feared. US Sanctions Pressure: Washington is weighing tougher economic measures aimed beyond Iran, including potential secondary sanctions on China’s “teapot” refineries and related intermediaries that buy sanctioned Iranian crude. India LPG Security: India set refinery-wise and company-wise maximum daily cooking gas (LPG) production targets totaling 63,810 tonnes/day, plus storage and transport infrastructure rules, as West Asia supply shocks exposed import dependence. India–China Energy Talks: Philippines President Marcos said joint oil and gas exploration with China in the South China Sea is a “distinct possibility,” as Manila seeks energy security amid ongoing confrontations. China Circular Economy: China’s NDRC aims for closed-loop recycling of solid waste from EVs, batteries and solar by 2030, tightening “scrapping with batteries” enforcement. Renewables & Industry: Jordan’s Shobak wind farm—operated by a China Three Gorges unit—highlights growing Chinese clean-energy investment in the Middle East, while India’s Agastya Energy plans a Rs 7,800 crore integrated 12 GW ingot/wafer expansion.

Oil & Shipping Risk: Crude prices jumped as tanker attacks and stalled US-Iran peace talks kept Strait of Hormuz worries front and center; Brent settled at $88.52 and WTI at $82.40, while Asian LNG prices rose on fading hopes for a quick strait reopening. India Energy Security: An economist warned India’s annual oil import bill could climb $5–10 billion if Russian crude purchases fall 50%, lifting inflation and pressuring the rupee and current account. Transport Fuel Policy: India’s oil ministry doubled down on E20, saying it’s been extensively tested and validated for durability, drivability and compatibility. Power Crisis Response: Bangladesh’s PM Tarique Rahman apologized for ongoing power and gas shortages, citing limited LNG storage and regasification capacity and promising near-term relief. Clean Energy Industry Push: Pakistan launched an “E-Cluster” to localize clean-energy manufacturing via phased technology transfer and supply-chain buildout. Renewables & Trade: Vietnam’s push for direct power purchase agreements and energy storage is improving business competitiveness as buyers tighten carbon and ESG rules. Space for Energy/Industry: India reported ~440 space tech startups and 113 authorisations for 52 entities, including 18 startups—supporting a growing private space ecosystem. Disaster Impact: Indonesia’s 7.7 quake killed at least 51 and disrupted power to dozens of petrol stations, forcing thousands to evacuate.

Electricity Trade Reform: Nepal’s energy minister Biraj Bhakta Shrestha says regulatory and policy reforms for power exports must move in parallel, including work on wheeling charges, to avoid delays and unlock India-linked investment. Independence Day Energy Push: India’s PM Modi used Independence Day to stress energy self-reliance—100 GW nuclear target by 2047, five new reactors this decade, solar up to 160 GW, and offshore oil-and-gas exploration opening from “no-go” areas. Myanmar Hydropower Restart: Myanmar plans to restart the China-backed Myitsone dam, a $3.6bn project suspended in 2011 after protests, with up to 6 GW potential and a reservoir about the size of Singapore. Bangladesh Gas-Power Crisis: PM Tarique Rahman apologised for shortages, said fixes are coming in days, and pointed to limited LNG storage/regas capacity while discussing LNG terminal plans and talks with China and Malaysia. AI Data Centers vs Water: In India’s water-stressed Ghaziabad area, residents say data centers are driving deep groundwater drilling—up to 1,000-1,200 feet—raising pressure on basic water access. Oil Route Risk: Oil and LNG prices rose as Strait of Hormuz tensions and tanker attacks kept supply fears elevated, underscoring the cost of chokepoint dependence. Defence-Propulsion Industrial Move: Reliance and Rolls-Royce plan a sovereign indigenous combat engine for India’s AMCA, exploring an aerospace gas turbine complex—another step in domestic energy/industrial capability building. Renewables Gridlock (South Asia): South Africa’s green expansion faces “gridlock” risks as transmission lines lag behind planned wind/solar/nuclear capacity growth.

India Energy Security Push: PM Modi used Independence Day to warn against the weaponisation of resources and sea routes, stressing energy self-reliance amid Strait of Hormuz disruption and higher shipping costs. Nuclear Expansion: Modi said India aims for 100 GW nuclear capacity by 2047 and to operationalise five new reactors this decade, pointing to the SHANTI Act and the PFBR reaching criticality. Power & Gas Buildout: He highlighted piped gas expansion (to 700 cities) and solar growth (to 160 GW), alongside railway electrification reaching 100%. Trade & Tariff Pressure: The US flagged India in a “shadow transshipment” network tied to Chinese goods, raising the risk of more inspections and friction for exporters. Regional Energy Talks: Philippines President Marcos said discussions with China on possible oil and gas exploration are making progress despite South China Sea tensions. Oil Spill Risk: A Russian tanker ran aground near Oman, spilling oil over about 2,000 sq km, with unclear response mechanisms and sanctions complicating cleanup. Clean Transition Context: A look at ASEAN’s net-zero push notes fossil fuels still dominate (83% of the mix) and calls for subsidy reform and investment support.

Philippines–China Energy Talks: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. says joint oil and gas exploration discussions with China have “moved forward” and are “making progress,” with no timeline yet, as Manila seeks supply resilience amid Middle East-linked fuel shocks. India–Bangladesh Diesel Support: India’s MEA says any extra diesel for Bangladesh will be assessed against India’s own demand, refining capacity and availability, even as Dhaka pushes for more via the friendship pipeline to ease power and gas shortages. Arctic Shipping Cooperation: India and Russia are in ongoing talks to deepen Northern Sea Route connectivity, with MEA stressing logistics linkages as part of broader cooperation after Putin flagged growing Indian interest. Oil Import Dependence: Reuters reports Russia’s share of India’s crude imports hit a record 50.83% in July, with shipments up 62% year-on-year, while US tariff pressure could add uncertainty. Malaysia Data Centres + Power: DPS Resources inks an MoU with CEIG to develop data centres and related energy infrastructure in Melaka, including gas turbine power, solar/renewables, transmission and water systems. India Defence Industrial Push: Reliance and Rolls-Royce plan an indigenous combat engine for India’s AMCA fighter, exploring an aerospace gas turbine complex in India. Markets & Energy Risk: Global stocks hover near records as inflation cools, but oil rises on tense US–Iran talks and blockade threats, keeping energy volatility in focus.

Hormuz Pressure & Route Shifts: A report says Iran has “de facto control” over the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, pushing the US and Gulf states to plan alternative export routes, including a $5bn refinery hub and an overland pipeline to Mediterranean ports—raising fresh energy-security jitters for Asia. Philippines Energy Cooperation: Despite South China Sea tensions, President Marcos tells foreign media Manila and Beijing can still cooperate economically, including joint offshore gas exploration (like Reed Bank). India-Russia Oil Risk: India’s Russian crude imports hit a record in July, but US Senate-passed 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers could add uncertainty for refiners. Japan Power Hedging: Japan’s power futures trading is surging as utilities hedge fuel-price volatility tied to the Iran war. Green Hydrogen Supply Chain: BHEL and Norway’s Hystar plan phased local manufacturing of PEM electrolyser systems in India. Waste-to-Energy Fight (Philippines): Marcos’ renewed WTE push faces backlash from Manila groups, who argue incineration won’t fix flooding and garbage governance failures. Arctic Drilling Controversy: Greenland weighs a response after a US-linked firm shipped drilling equipment without Nuuk authorization. Energy Safety (China): A gas outburst at a coal mine in Hunan left seven missing.

Strait of Hormuz pressure: Iran’s alleged “de facto control” over Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb is pushing the US and Gulf states to plan alternative export routes, including a proposed refinery and pipeline corridor toward Mediterranean ports, raising new uncertainty for oil and LNG flows to Asia. Oman spill response: Salvors are mobilising off Oman to contain a weeks-long Russian crude spill from the Caroline Bezengi, with monsoon weather complicating cleanup and fisheries monitoring under way. Gas security in South Asia: Bangladesh is facing a severe power crisis after generation falls to ~13 GW vs 18 GW peak demand, prompting an emergency request to India for additional diesel via existing pipeline arrangements. India renewables momentum: India’s installed power capacity hit 552 GW in July, with non-fossil at 54%+; solar alone reached 164.6 GW and rooftop PM-Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana is benefiting 51.6 lakh households. Critical minerals push: India received 20 bids for a Rs 7,280-crore scheme to build integrated rare-earth magnet manufacturing (NdFeB) capacity, aiming to cut import dependence for EV and clean-tech supply chains. Corporate investment: Hinduja Group plans Rs 2,500 crore in Tamil Nadu, including 200 MW+ renewables and clean mobility/battery charging. Trade and energy costs: India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a six-month high of $31.98 bn as imports rose, with petroleum product exports also surging—while inflation accelerated to 4.45% in July, keeping rate hikes on hold.

Strait of Hormuz Fallout: The IEA flagged a widening oil deficit as Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep inventories draining, while US claims that flows are “almost 9 million bpd” are disputed by vessel trackers—fueling fresh volatility for Asia-bound crude and LNG. Market Pulse: India’s Sensex and Nifty slid for a second day as crude stayed near six-session highs; Japan’s wholesale prices jumped 7.2% in July, lifting odds of a September BOJ rate hike. Energy Security in Focus: South Korea and ASEAN urged deeper cooperation on energy and the ASEAN power grid as demand is set to surge; the Philippines’ energy emergency response leans on “energy of all sorts,” not renewables-only. Policy Push: India’s Parliament panel wants a minimum R&D spend benchmark for oil PSUs (as % of PBT) to strengthen indigenous tech and the transition. Clean Energy Supply Chains: Malaysia is nearing commercialization of palm oil-based, water-free cooling fluid for data centers, aiming to cut water use and operating costs. Hydro Deal: JSW Energy signed with Bhutan’s DGPC to jointly develop the 920 MW Punatsangchhu-III project.

Middle East Energy Shock: Iran-linked control of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb is pushing buyers toward alternative routes, with talk of a $5bn refinery/export hub and an overland pipeline to Mediterranean ports—raising the stakes for Asia’s oil and LNG supply. Marine Disaster: A grounded tanker off Oman (Caroline Bezengi, ~800,000 barrels) is spreading into a fast-worsening spill, with the IMO warning of major environmental risk as monsoon winds delay salvage. Oil Market Mood: Global stocks edged up while oil dipped on demand forecasts and US-Iran deadlock, even as Hormuz tensions keep a floor under prices. Japan FX & Energy Costs: The US and Japan’s yen support is already fading; the yen’s slide matters for Japan’s import bill and broader energy inflation pressures. India Power & Renewables: KP Energy reported strong Q1 FY27 growth and a 3.73 GW renewable portfolio; Odisha also amended semiconductor and renewable policies to attract investment. Clean Energy Policy: Malaysia’s National Energy Awards highlighted energy savings and renewables output, while Rajasthan moved to require renewable developers to reserve 10% of land for tree plantation. EV Supply Chain: China’s NEV sales hit a record share in July, while NIO keeps expanding its swap-and-charge network—both signals of how fast Asia’s power demand is shifting.

Rooftop Solar Push in India: India’s PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli scheme has hit 5 million beneficiary households, with rooftop solar now adding 16,000+ installations a day, as the government leans on incentives and manufacturing support. Grid Storage Momentum: Maharashtra cleared a 25% transfer-fee concession (and stamp duty waiver) for land bought for renewable projects, while Gujarat’s GUVNL awarded a 450 MW/900 MWh BESS tender—showing storage is moving from pilots to procurement. Battery Tech Shift: Sodium-ion is gaining traction as a lower-cost, safer alternative for grid and backup uses, with China expanding output and even mining-truck trials underway. Oil Market Jitters: Oil and gold climbed on renewed Middle East shipping and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty ahead of US inflation data, keeping Asia markets cautious. Energy Security via LNG: A report says China is becoming a key destination for Russia’s sanctioned LNG, using logistics and discounting to keep flows moving. Nuclear Disruption in Europe: France’s Gravelines shut three reactors after a jellyfish swarm clogged cooling pumps, cutting output and underlining climate-linked stress on nuclear operations. India-Africa Trade: India and Namibia agreed to deepen trade and critical minerals cooperation, with bilateral merchandise trade at $592.94m in 2025-26.

ASEAN Energy Security: Malaysia’s Tengku Zafrul says ASEAN’s energy transition is stuck on a “capital coordination” problem, citing a roughly $200bn annual funding need through 2030 and urging faster cross-border moves like the ASEAN Power Grid. Gas Power Delivery Gap: Wood Mackenzie warns Southeast Asia’s gas-fired pipeline is slipping: 53GW planned by 2030, but only 14.9GW likely reaches commercial operation this decade, with LNG, financing and turbine availability the key bottlenecks. India Credit & Energy Shock: Fitch reaffirmed India’s BBB- rating, flagging risks from the US-Iran conflict but expecting growth resilience despite an energy shock. India Clean Fuel Push: India targets a 10-fold jump in compressed biogas output to 5 mmscmd in 5-10 years to cut import dependence. India-China River Data: India renewed demands for hydrological data sharing on the Brahmaputra and upstream transparency as China advances the Yarlung Tsangpo mega-dam. EV Demand Turns Up: The IEA says global EV sales rebounded in 2Q and are set to reach 29% of global car sales in 2026, with exports rising fast even as China’s domestic EV growth cools. Gold Flows: China’s gold consumption rose 1.23% in H1, with investment demand offsetting a sharp drop in jewelry buying. Typhoon Disrupts Power in Japan: Typhoon Chan-hom hit eastern Japan, leaving tens of thousands of households without power. Geothermal in Mindanao: Philippines’ Mt. Apo geothermal facility highlights long-running output and new community and environmental programs under First Gen Renewables.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil prices stayed near recent highs as US-Iran talks hit an impasse over Strait of Hormuz reopening, with Brent around $88 and markets bracing for inflation risk. Market Mood: Asian equities were mixed while investors weighed the energy-to-prices pipeline and upcoming US data. India Supply Security: India is unlikely to cut Russian crude imports right away despite new US sanctions steps, underscoring how quickly policy uncertainty can collide with refinery needs. LPG Stress Test: Nepal’s LPG shortage persists even as imports look steady, pointing to distribution and restart-management problems after rationing. Power & Renewables in ASEAN: Malaysia renewed its 10-year energy efficiency plan targeting big demand cuts and emissions reductions, while its 2026 FiT e-bidding approved 42 renewable projects. Philippines Data-Center Water/Power Math: A proposed AI/semiconductor hub (Pax Silica) faces scrutiny over 3 GW power needs, large land take, and water stress risks—especially in El Niño years. Corporate Signals: ACEN’s H1 net income jumped on stronger renewables sales and storage momentum. Energy Transition Watch: Europe’s gas storage sits below seasonal norms, raising the odds of tighter competition with Asia this winter.

Oman Oil Spill: Oman says a grounded tanker spill near the Hallaniyat Islands covers about 390 sq km, as authorities move to contain impacts on a marine reserve. Cuba Solar Push: Cuba expands incentives for renewable imports as China delivers another 5,000 PV systems to ease a worsening electricity crisis and keep blackouts in check. Hormuz & Oil Markets: With Strait of Hormuz reopening still uncertain, crude stays bid and investors watch for renewed volatility across Asia-linked supply chains. India Clean Power Milestone: India’s non-fossil capacity tops 300 GW, reinforcing momentum in solar and round-the-clock renewables procurement. India Grid Bottleneck: Hitachi Energy flags grid expansion—not generation—as the next constraint, with transmission and storage demand rising alongside data centres. DRC Uranium in Cobalt Exports: Kinshasa responds to claims of undeclared uranium shipments tied to cobalt exports, carefully avoiding naming China. US Tariff Threat to Energy: Democrats warn a Trump farmland-reporting rule could chill energy investment, while US sanctions and tariff proposals keep pressure on regional energy security. Renewables Dealmaking: SECI’s round-the-clock tender sees Juniper Green Energy win 230 MW at INR 5.26/kWh with integrated solar-wind-BESS. Regional Diplomacy: Fiji’s reopened high commission in Kuala Lumpur signals renewed ASEAN and renewable-energy cooperation focus.

Oil & Shipping: Oil prices pushed higher as Strait of Hormuz reopening stayed uncertain, with Iran saying a deal with Oman is near but the US must meet other conditions; markets also tracked fresh Middle East shipping risk after reports of another tanker incident near Oman. Power & Renewables (India): India hit a clean-energy milestone with non-fossil installed capacity at 300.50 GW (solar 164.59 GW, wind 58.14 GW, hydro 57.24 GW, bio 11.75 GW, nuclear 8.78 GW), while SECI’s round-the-clock renewables tender cleared at a record low of INR 5.25/kWh for 1 GW with storage-backed firm supply. Energy Storage (China): HiTHIUM rolled out production for a long-duration energy storage industrial park in Heze, aiming to scale manufacturing across cells to systems. Markets (Asia-Pacific): Asian shares were mixed-to-firm as Wall Street strength met oil-driven caution; China’s July inflation cooled (CPI +0.5% y/y) as oil’s impact faded. Policy & Trade (US-India): India faced renewed tariff pressure after a US Senate move targeting Russian oil buyers, raising concerns for energy costs and inflation. Weather Disruption (China): Typhoon Dolphin battered eastern China, triggering hundreds of flight cancellations and transport suspensions, with heavy rain and flood alerts continuing. Regional Diplomacy (ASEAN): ASEAN leaders marked 59 years with renewed calls to keep “centrality” and unity as the region navigates conflicts, climate risk, economic uncertainty and AI. Critical Minerals (Australia/US): An Australian scandium miner surged after indications of potential US support for critical minerals projects.

Middle East Energy Security: Russia is floating a direct rail link to the Indian Ocean via Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan as Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep pressure on global oil and LNG flows. US–India Sanctions Shock: The US Senate has passed a Russia sanctions bill that could enable up to 100% tariffs on Russian oil/gas buyers, raising fresh risk for India’s energy costs even if physical supply disruption is seen as unlikely right away. Strait of Hormuz Legal/Shipping: China’s Guangzhou Maritime Court mediated a $25m tanker collision dispute near Hormuz, with parties agreeing to apply Chinese law—another sign of China’s growing role in maritime risk handling. Renewables Momentum (India): India crossed 300 GW of non-fossil installed power, with solar the biggest driver, while BRICS competition authorities backed fair competition in renewable energy markets. Clean Power Integrity (India): Tamil Nadu solar projects near 4,000 MW were flagged as affected by corruption during the prior DMK rule, with new approvals and online processes promised. Typhoon Disruption (China): Typhoon Dolphin hit China’s east coast with the highest red alert, triggering major flight cancellations and heavy-rain risks across multiple provinces. Trade & Industry (China–Africa): Hunan targets $11.9b trade with Africa by 2028, focusing on mining, modern agriculture and green energy, supported by expanded China zero-tariff coverage. China Inflation: July CPI rose 0.5% and PPI 3.5%, easing factory-gate pressure as oil prices soften. Energy Diplomacy (Oman): Oman is leaning on its cross-divide diplomacy to support lower-carbon deals in renewables and green hydrogen. Electric Mobility (Philippines): Radar EV Pickup opened a Cebu dealership via Pacific Autoworld, pushing electrified work-ready pickup models with after-sales support.