AGP Executive Report

Australia–LNG Deal: Woodside will pay at least $320m to lift its stake in the Browse gas project, blocking Inpex’s planned entry and aiming to move gas to its North West Shelf system. India Fuel Policy: India restricts bulk buyers from buying petrol and diesel at retail pumps for up to 90 days, after diesel demand surged and pricing gaps encouraged diversion. India–Russia Energy Politics: Jaishankar defends India’s Russian crude purchases as driven by cost and availability, pushing back on Western criticism. Middle East Shock to Markets: Hopes of an Iran peace deal sent oil to two-month lows and lifted Asian stocks, while the rupee was set to rebound on softer crude. Shipping Security: India protested US strikes on a tanker off Oman that killed three Indian sailors, demanding an end to attacks. India–Northeast Hydrocarbons: India signs a tripartite MoU with Assam and Nagaland to enable oil and mineral exploration in the disputed Assam-Nagaland boundary belt. Clean Energy Push: NSEFI launches a Southern Regional Committee in Chennai to back solar, wind, storage and green hydrogen advocacy across South India. Japan Rates Watch: The BOJ is set to hike rates to 1% next week, a move that could reshape yen funding conditions and risk appetite. Pakistan Power Mix: Pakistan’s energy survey says hydel, renewables and nuclear now exceed thermal in installed capacity for the first time.

Middle East Oil Shock: US President Donald Trump escalated threats against Iran, saying the US will hit “very hard tonight” and in the “not too distant future” take control of Kharg Island and other oil and gas infrastructure, as Iran says the April ceasefire is “effectively meaningless.” Shipping & India Fallout: India confirmed three sailors killed in a US strike on the tanker Settebello near Oman and lodged protests with the US, while reporting more incidents and warning of wider trade and fuel-supply risks. Macro & FX Spillovers: Singapore said it’s monitoring West Asia risks as imported energy costs could lift inflation later, while India’s rupee slid to 95.75 per dollar amid oil-market volatility and capital outflows. Energy Transition in Asia: Malaysia and Japan agreed to deepen energy security cooperation, including a 20-year LNG deal between Petronas and JERA. Renewables Buildout: India’s textile MSMEs are turning to rooftop solar for 30%-70% electricity-cost cuts, and ONGC awarded INR 2,000 crore for 250 MW captive wind projects to Prozeal Green Energy. Grid Stability Push: China advanced a grid-forming renewables project linking wind, solar and storage to tackle power stability challenges.

Middle East Oil Pricing: Iraq cut July Basrah medium crude OSP to Asia to plus $0.30/bbl versus Oman/Dubai, while Basrah heavy was set at minus $1.80/bbl—another signal of how West Asia tensions are reshaping Asian crude economics. Strait of Hormuz Risk: Oil jumped after renewed US-Iran strikes and Iran’s move to close the Strait of Hormuz to tankers, reviving fears of supply disruption and inflation spillovers across Asia. OECD Stockpile Stress: The EIA said OECD oil reserves hit the lowest since 2003 as the region draws down commercial and emergency stocks to offset Middle East disruption. India Energy Policy: India scrapped excise duty on petrol with 22%-30% ethanol, pushing higher ethanol blends as a hedge against imported crude volatility. Upstream Royalties: CLSA flagged India’s onshore crude royalty rate rising to 13.33% and warned of near-term EPS pressure for ONGC and Oil India. Renewables Buildout: Juniper Green Energy commissioned 305 MWp of solar-wind capacity in Gujarat, adding to India’s fast-growing clean power pipeline. Smart Grid Investment: Adani Energy Solutions’ ₹3,050 crore bid for smart-meter firm IntelliSmart highlights the race to scale meters ahead of India’s RDSS rollout. Regional Energy Diplomacy: Japan and Malaysia pledged stronger energy and maritime security cooperation, including stable LNG supplies for Japan. Nuclear Watch: Japan restarted a reactor at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, but the reboot underscores Japan’s spent-fuel disposal bottleneck. Trade & Sanctions: The US added major Chinese solar and battery firms to a military-linked list, while China warned of retaliation over EU sanctions targeting Chinese companies.

AI Data Centers & Power Demand: Meta will lease a 168MW AI data center from Reliance in Gujarat, with Reliance handling build and utilities; Meta also lines up ~1GW of renewables via CleanMax and Fourth Partner Energy, underscoring how AI buildouts are turning into new electricity and grid-planning stories across India. Energy Security Forum: ASEAN Future Forum 2026 in Hanoi puts energy security front and center as the bloc tries to balance a faster green transition with reliability needs. Oil Market Shock: Renewed US-Iran strikes keep oil elevated and push inflation worries back into Asia, with India’s bond market reacting as crude price risk feeds external-balance stress. India Biofuels Push: India launched E85 flex-fuel to cut crude imports and boost ethanol demand, aiming to scale higher-ethanol blends in transport. Renewables in the Grid Mix: Jinko ESS delivered 722MWh BESS for a large Indian renewable project, highlighting storage’s role in stabilizing output and managing peak demand. Regional Energy Ties: Japan switched on Asia’s first osmotic power plant in Fukuoka, while India-UAE cooperation continues to deepen around energy and logistics. China Inflation Watch: China’s CPI stayed stable in May while PPI rose, a mix that matters for energy-linked input costs and industrial pricing.

Middle East Oil Shock: Asian markets watched oil swing on renewed US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risk, with jet fuel and ATF prices rising as supply fears feed inflation. China Inflation Watch: China’s May CPI rose 1.2% and PPI jumped 3.9%, underscoring how energy costs are still flowing through factories and households. Japan–Bangladesh Energy Finance: Japan approved a $312m emergency loan (with ADB co-financing) to bolster Bangladesh’s energy security and resilience under its POWERR Asia push. India Gas Infrastructure: Indian producers urged PNGRB to loosen rules blocking pipeline interconnections, arguing it could unlock nearly 10% of idle domestic gas and cut LNG import pressure. EV Charging Expansion: Exponent Energy raised ₹200 crore to expand rapid EV charging for commercial fleets across India. Grid-Scale Storage for Renewables: Jinko ESS delivered a 722MWh BESS package for an India large-scale renewables project to stabilize high renewable penetration. ASEAN Role: Vietnam called for ASEAN to shape regional norms and strengthen innovation and cooperation at the ASEAN Future Forum. AI Data Center Power Demand: Meta’s AI-enabled data center deal with Reliance targets 168MW in Jamnagar, with renewable power and desalinated cooling.

West Asia Energy Shock: Oil prices eased on hopes of a ceasefire/peace progress, but the Strait of Hormuz risk still hangs over Asia’s supply chain, with Japan fielding ~9,500 petroleum-product bottleneck inquiries and India warning of “utmost concern” while monitoring energy security. India Fuel Shield: India extended ₹1.23 lakh crore support to oil marketing companies to offset under-recoveries from West Asia-linked crude and LPG costs, alongside a ₹10,000-crore price-stabilization framework to smooth retail volatility. Demand & Supply Signals: China’s crude imports fell to an eight-year low as refinery runs weakened, while exports jumped on AI-driven demand—showing how geopolitics is reshaping both energy flows and industrial output. Power & Renewables Buildout: Japan’s NTT West signed a 4.99MW geothermal virtual PPA (VPPA) to back carbon-neutral goals, while South Africa’s Eskom Green launched an initial 2 GW renewables pipeline with private partners. Grid Modernization in India: Adani Energy Solutions is acquiring smart-meter firm IntelliSmart for ₹3,050 crore, aiming to accelerate distribution modernization. Mobility Fuel Diversification: India launched E85 flex-fuel to cut crude imports and boost ethanol use, as it also prepares for deeper energy resilience planning.

Middle East Oil Shock: Israel-Iran strikes kept crude elevated and kept markets jittery, with Fitch warning the Strait of Hormuz closure is dragging global growth and lifting its 2026 Brent forecast. Asia Markets & Energy Link: Asian shares bounced on dip-buying as oil eased off peaks, but investors still watched shipping constraints through Hormuz and bond-yield pressure. India Fuel Security Push: India launched E85 (85% ethanol) and a flex-fuel vehicle push to cut imported crude exposure, while policymakers reiterated fuel-reserve comfort amid West Asia risks. Renewables Momentum in the Pacific: Pacific communities are accelerating solar training and installs as fuel costs bite and power reliability remains a concern. Australia Coal Exit: AGL’s Liddell coal chimney demolition marked progress in Australia’s shift toward batteries and renewables. China Trade & LNG: China’s May exports grew faster than expected, and LNG demand is slowly recovering as buyers return after Hormuz disruptions. Solar vs Gas Economics: Jefferies flagged strong Indian power demand and policy support for solar manufacturing, pointing to renewed tendering into FY27. Crypto Meets Oil: CITIC warned oil risks may be underpriced, with potential spillovers for inflation-sensitive risk assets.

Middle East Energy Shock: West Asia fighting kept crude volatile and dragged Asian equities; India’s Sensex fell 719 points as oil spiked, while airlines warned jet-fuel costs could halve profits this year. LPG Affordability: India cut subsidised Ujjwala cylinders to four per year as retail prices rose (Delhi cylinder now about Rs 942 after recent hikes), adding pressure to household budgets. Energy Security Planning: Japan will help the Philippines build a government-owned oil stockpile and push an ASEAN-wide joint stockpiling framework, as Strait of Hormuz disruption risks linger. Oil Market Diversification: Analysts say China’s reduced oil imports have cushioned prices, but that support may fade; Opec+ also adjusted Oman’s output ceiling. Clean Industry Momentum (India): India’s low-carbon industrial project pipeline hit $433bn, with green ammonia leading, while offshore wind and hybrid renewables plus storage featured at a Bengaluru summit. Bioenergy Investment: GPS Renewables raised INR 635 crore to expand compressed biogas projects. Corporate FX Risk (Philippines/Indonesia): Moody’s flagged rising offshore-debt stress for First Pacific as the stronger US dollar lifts servicing costs.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil jumped after Israel struck targets in Iran, threatening a fragile ceasefire and keeping Strait of Hormuz risks front and center, with Brent back near the mid-$90s and global growth forecasts pressured. Market Mood in Asia: Asian equities slid as the AI-led rally cooled and tech selling hit semiconductors; Hong Kong and Japan were among the weak spots while oil and the dollar stayed supported by the conflict. India Fuel Policy: India launched E85 (85% ethanol) at select pumps for flex-fuel vehicles, aiming to cut crude import dependence; meanwhile domestic LPG prices were hiked again by ₹29 per cylinder, adding to household pressure. Philippines-Russia Energy Diplomacy: Marcos is expected to meet Putin at the ASEAN-Russia summit in Kazan, with energy among the cooperation areas. Regional Power Trade: ADB readies a $10m grant to kick-start a Pan-Asia Power Grid push to expand cross-border electricity and speed renewable integration. Nuclear in the Philippines: MUFG signaled openness to financing nuclear projects only if aligned with Japanese government backing. Japan Economy Watch: Revised data showed Japan’s Q1 growth lost momentum as capex stayed weak, with energy-cost cushioning in focus.

Oil & Gas Markets: OPEC+ agreed to lift July quotas by 188,000 bpd, but analysts say it won’t matter much while the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed, keeping crude risk premiums elevated. Power Demand & Grid: Bangladesh says it has enough electricity overall, though peak summer and irrigation demand can trigger temporary disruptions tied to fuel supply, transmission limits and weather. LPG in Focus: India raised domestic LPG by Rs 29 to Rs 942 for a 14.2-kg cylinder in Delhi, with the government arguing it’s still among the world’s lowest and that upstream costs are being absorbed. Energy Security Diplomacy: Nepal and India are pushing a reset—Nepal’s FM says border disputes should be handled via existing bilateral mechanisms, while both sides also advanced cross-border digital payments and legal cooperation. Regional Energy Partnerships: Uzbekistan and India discussed expanding industrial cooperation including critical minerals, coal gasification and nuclear energy. Renewables & Transition Finance: IRENA signed up Etihad Credit Insurance to help de-risk renewable projects via its ETAF platform. Asia Tech Power: China launched a prefabricated computing energy hub in Qingdao aimed at faster, lower-land, lower-carbon power for AI data centres. Geopolitics & Shipping: US forces seized the Iranian-linked supertanker M/T Davina carrying about 1.9 million barrels, part of a crackdown on Iran’s “ghost fleet.”

Natural Gas Discovery: Oil India says it has found natural gas in the Andaman Offshore Basin, with testing at the Sri Vijayapuram-3 well (15 km off the east coast) showing continuous flaring and prompting sampling and isotope work. Energy Prices & Households: India raised domestic LPG by Rs 29 per 14.2-kg cylinder from June 7 (Delhi to Rs 942), the second hike in three months as global costs bite and under-recovery remains around Rs 700 per cylinder. Power Market Stress: With West Asia disruption squeezing LNG flows, India’s gas-fired power plants are turning to spot purchases—spot gas buying by power-sector entities jumped sharply in April-May, while long-term LNG supply to gas-grid capacity stayed absent. LNG Supply Shift: In May, the US became India’s top LNG source as imports recovered toward pre-war levels despite Strait of Hormuz disruption, with Qatar and UAE volumes hit and cargoes rerouted. Data Centres vs Climate Goals: Malaysia’s data-centre boom is driving faster gas-fired power generation, putting pressure on its pledge to cut fossil fuel use by 2050. Regional Diplomacy: India and Nepal held talks in New Delhi, including a UPI-NPI cross-border payments link and renewed focus on hydropower and energy cooperation. Macro Outlook: India’s FY27 GDP growth is seen moderating to around 6.5% amid higher input costs, geopolitical risks and El Niño-linked monsoon uncertainty. US Sanctions on Iran-linked LPG: OFAC designated an Iranian LPG smuggling network disguised as Omani product, targeting people, front firms and tankers tied to Iran’s energy revenue.

West Asia Energy Shock Watch: With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked for months, crude is still staying under $100 a barrel thanks to workarounds like record US exports and a sharp slowdown in Chinese demand, but analysts warn the buffers won’t last forever. India–Venezuela Energy Ties: Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez toured India’s Jamnagar refinery and pushed for deeper oil-and-gas cooperation, while Indian firms signal interest in expanding in Venezuela as New Delhi diversifies crude supply. Frontier Gas Find in India: Oil India reported natural gas in the Andaman Offshore Basin from the Sri Vijayapuram-3 well, with sampling and testing under way—another step toward reducing import dependence. ASEAN Energy Regulation: Malaysia’s Energy Commission is studying an energy regulatory sandbox aimed for a 2027 launch to test new tech and business models while keeping system stability. Consumer Energy Costs, India: India standardised edible oil pack sizes to improve price transparency, while West Asia-linked fuel price pressure is expected to strain household budgets. Energy Tech Industry: China’s new-generation axial flux motors have entered mass production for electric drive buses, boosting efficiency and helping scale EV-related supply chains.

Biofuels Push in India: India began rolling out E85 (80–85% ethanol) at its first commercial dispensing station in New Delhi, aiming to accelerate flex-fuel adoption after ethanol blending hit 20% ahead of schedule. Mobility Shift: Maruti Suzuki launched India’s first flex-fuel car (Wagon R), designed to run on ethanol blends from E20 to E100, linking farm incomes and lower oil import dependence. Japan Energy Buffer: Japan’s parliament approved a 3.11-trillion-yen extra budget for FY2026, including reserves and subsidies to cushion households and power costs amid Middle East-linked energy price pressure. Andaman Gas Find: Oil India reported natural gas presence in a third exploratory well in the Andaman offshore block, adding to earlier gas indications and strengthening India’s offshore exploration outlook. Grid for Renewables: China installed the world’s largest offshore converter station for wind power in Guangdong, a major step for far-from-shore renewable transmission. Energy Security Flashpoint: Arab League chief urged UN action over oil tanker attacks in the Arabian Gulf, as Strait of Hormuz traffic remains constrained and shipping risks rise. Digital Infrastructure Boom: India’s PM Modi backed AirTrunk’s plan to invest over Rs 3 lakh crore and build 5 GW of data centres, underscoring power and energy demand growth tied to AI.

Pacific Islands Clean Energy: ISA and the World Bank launched a Pacific SIDS solar dialogue in Bali, aiming to move from policy to bankable projects, including an ISA SIDS Platform E-Marketplace tender for a 220 MW solar-plus-storage pipeline in Mauritius. India Renewable Push: PM Narendra Modi told a World Environment Day event in Surat that Gujarat is a key pillar of India’s energy transition, citing its 50 GW renewable contribution and linking the state’s role to green hydrogen, ammonia and green steel. India Flex-Fuel Momentum: India’s push for ethanol mobility got a boost with the launch of its first flex-fuel car, while industry discussions stressed multiple low-carbon fuel pathways to cut import dependence. Oil Market Shock—Iran: Iran’s crude exports plunged to a six-year low in May as US naval blockade pressure tightened, leaving barrels stranded and raising uncertainty for regional energy flows. India–Venezuela Energy Ties: Hardeep Singh Puri met Venezuela’s Acting President Delcy Rodríguez to expand long-term oil and gas cooperation as India diversifies crude sourcing amid Middle East disruption. Japan Energy Buffering: Japan cleared a supplementary budget to cushion households and the economy from Middle East-driven energy price risks, including support for LPG users and replenishing energy bill reserves. Data Centers Meet Power Demand: AirTrunk’s planned $30bn India buildout underscores how AI infrastructure is becoming a major electricity and grid challenge across Asia.

India–Venezuela Energy Push: India’s oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri says an Indian technical team will soon visit Venezuela to assess new energy opportunities, pointing to Venezuela’s huge crude reserves and India’s refining capability as April-May 2026 crude supplies already remain significant. India–UK Clean Energy & Minerals: UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper’s India visit produced deals under the Vision 2035 roadmap, including a UK-India Critical Minerals Supply Chain Observatory and cooperation spanning defence, education and clean energy. US–India Trade Signals: Donald Trump again called PM Modi a “good friend” and said a US-India trade agreement is on track, while reiterating tariff complaints—an issue that can spill into energy-linked trade and investment. Middle East Oil Shock Watch: The IEA warns the world is nearing a “red zone” if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t fully reopened by late June-July, even as oil prices ease on hopes for de-escalation. Japan SAF Feedstock Drive: Japan is pushing harder to source sustainable aviation fuel, leaning on “Fry to Fly” used-cooking-oil collection as it tries to reach a 2030 SAF target amid constrained supply. Japan Nuclear Rebuild Plan: NHK reports Japan is drafting targets to replace ageing reactors—2-5 by the 2040s and up to 11-14 by the 2050s—to stabilize power demand, especially from AI data centres. China LPG Safety Crackdown: Northeast China saw a deadly blast in Liaoning linked to a suspected LPG cylinder leak, while separate reporting highlights enforcement against illegal LPG refilling in India. China Battery Pivot: China’s solar majors are ramping battery exports as PV growth slows, betting on storage demand to cut fossil reliance.

Aviation Fuel Shock Shield: India’s cabinet approved a ₹10,000 crore (about $1bn) jet fuel price stabilisation fund to cap costs for airlines as West Asia tensions keep jet fuel prices elevated. Ethanol Push for Energy Security: Maruti Suzuki launched India’s first flex-fuel Wagon R (E20–E100), while the government plans E85 rollout—starting with 50–100 stations in Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, Pune and Nagpur, scaling to 500 by end-2026 and 5,000 by end-2027. Hydrogen Storage Pilot: Payal Industrial Park and Fourier will deploy hydrogen-based long-duration storage at Dahej, aiming for week-plus clean power for industrial operations. Energy Diplomacy Diversifies Supplies: Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez met India’s Modi and officials, with oil talks focused on expanding crude supply as India seeks alternatives amid Strait of Hormuz disruption. Regional Power Transition in Malaysia: Tenaga Nasional (TNB) says ESG-led operations helped it secure an upgraded AA MSCI rating and delivered 4.3GW of installed renewables, as grid modernisation and data-centre demand drive investment. Quad Energy-Critical Minerals Signal: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a Quad leaders meeting is targeted by year-end, building on recent cooperation on stable energy and critical minerals. LPG Under-Recovery Persists: India’s LPG supply is stable, but oil firms still face near-₹700 under-recovery per cylinder, despite higher domestic output and imports.