AGP Executive Report

Philippines Power Costs: Consumer coalition P4P says Marcos’ push to scrap EPIRA “system loss charges” is overdue, but won’t fix the wider energy affordability problem. Renewables in India: Andhra Pradesh added 3.9 GW of renewables in 2025-26, nearly quadruple the prior year, citing faster approvals and better implementation. Solar Tech: NIT Rourkela won an Indian patent for an AI system that monitors and autonomously cleans solar panels using federated learning to cut dust-related output losses. Energy Security—Oil Supply: India’s MRPL is tendering for crude that avoids the Red Sea and Hormuz chokepoints, adding stricter protections against supply disruptions. Australia Refining Plan: Australia will study building its first new oil refinery in 60+ years to reduce import dependence amid Middle East supply shocks. Climate & Renewables Push: UN climate chief Simon Stiell urged faster renewables rollout, warning conflict and fossil fuel dependence are worsening energy insecurity and food-price instability. Markets & Oil: Oil eased on hopes of US-Iran de-escalation, helping lift early Indian equities while chip jitters hit Asia.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil slid sharply after a US-Iran pause eased Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea supply fears, lifting Asian risk sentiment and easing inflation worries. Philippines Energy Security: In Manila’s SONA, President Marcos said the country kept fuel flowing for nearly two months by sourcing oil from Japan, South Korea, Oman, India, Russia and China after Hormuz disruptions. Power Storage Push (India): POWERGRID invited bids for a 500 MW/1,000 MWh battery energy storage system under a long-term agreement, with domestic procurement and cybersecurity testing requirements. Renewables Supply Chain (India): Emerge Renewables lit up North India’s first dedicated solar glass plant in Rajasthan, targeting 2.5 GW/year to cut import dependence. ASEAN Growth Watch: AMRO flagged the Philippines as likely the 4th slowest-growing ASEAN economy this year, citing oil-shock hit to growth and higher inflation. Coal India Earnings: Coal India reported Q1 FY27 profit up 0.7% to ₹8,850 crore as costs rose 27% amid West Asia impacts. Grid Modernisation (Hawai‘i): Hawaiian Electric launched a major renewables-and-storage procurement plan for O‘ahu, Hawai‘i Island and Maui to reduce oil use and speed 100% clean power goals.

Oil Market Mood: Global crude slid more than 5% after the US and Iran paused strikes, easing fears for Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping; Brent fell to about $92 and WTI to about $85, lifting Asian risk sentiment and lowering near-term inflation pressure. Power Finance (Vietnam): BIDV and VietinBank joined Petrovietnam in a VND7.3tn ($281m) credit deal to fund the 1,050MW O Mon IV gas-to-power plant, targeting completion in 2028. Gas & Minerals Push (Australia): Australia’s Northern Territory is courting Korean investment in Beetaloo shale gas plus rare earths and AI data centers, with plans to scale local execution capacity as projects ramp. Renewables & Governance (Australia): A renewable energy tech manager was charged in Australia over an alleged $20,000 bribe attempt tied to a product approval process. Grid & Rates (Pacific): Pacific Power in Oregon is seeking an ~8.6% rate increase, with a public feedback meeting scheduled. Energy Security Angle: A report says West Asia conflict is pushing Asia and Europe buyers to lean more on domestic gas and local energy options to reduce exposure to disrupted routes.

West Asia Energy Shock: A tanker explosion after striking a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz has renewed fears of disruption on one of the world’s key oil and LNG routes, with Iran and Oman also discussing safe navigation. Oil Price Volatility: With crude back near/above $100 amid US-Iran tensions and shipping risk, analysts warn markets will stay jumpy as central banks weigh energy-driven inflation. India Energy Security: India’s crude import risk is rising as Red Sea disruptions persist, while NITI Aayog flags fuel-price revisions only after sustained crude declines. LNG & Power Buildout (Cambodia): Cambodia opened bidding for its first 900MW LNG power plant (450MW by end-2026), aiming for 70% clean electricity by 2030. Energy Transition (Nepal): Nepal has largely solved electricity access but still imports diesel, coal and LPG—its next transition should focus on displacing fossil fuels via electrification. Energy Cooperation (Indonesia–Norway): Indonesia and Norway agreed to deepen work on the energy transition alongside environmental and marine aquaculture projects. Markets Watch (Bullion): Gold and silver are expected to stay volatile as traders track the US Fed, crude moves, and West Asia risk.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Houthis hit Saudi oil installations (Jizan, Yanbu) as the US pauses strikes on Iran, raising fears of wider disruption and a refined-product squeeze that could lift diesel prices. Oil & Rates Watch: Crude surged above $100, putting central banks on alert for renewed inflation risk; markets later steadied as oil eased on peace-talk optimism. India Protest Fallout: India’s “Cockroach” youth movement ended after Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan resigned and the government accepted demands tied to exam leaks—an immediate political reset with knock-on pressure on education policy. China Demand vs Power: Fitch says China’s export-heavy sectors (EVs, batteries, tech supply chains) are cushioning weak domestic demand, while reliable power is increasingly strategic for energy security and AI buildout. Japan FX & Energy Exposure: The yen slid toward 40-year lows as structural issues deepen; analysts flag Japan’s Middle East import reliance as shipping disruptions loom. Maritime Incident: A Vietnamese ship sank near Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea; 39 rescued, 23 missing—another reminder of the region’s energy-linked risk.

Red Sea Energy Security: Yemen’s Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, while Saudi air defences intercepted missiles and the US paused Iran-targeting strikes for the first night in two weeks—keeping pressure on two key shipping routes as Brent hovers near $100. India Power Demand: Delayed monsoon and heat lifted India’s electricity demand 10.7% in July 1–16, with peak demand hitting record levels and coal stocks staying tight but adequate. India Education Fallout (Not Energy, but policy-linked): Dharmendra Pradhan resigned after “Cockroach” youth protests over NEET exam leaks; the government later moved to accept demands and end protests—an example of fast political turnaround that can spill into public spending priorities. Climate & Resilience: Mangrove conservation is getting renewed attention ahead of July 26, with experts urging community-led restoration across Southeast Asia to protect coastal livelihoods. Typhoon Noul Disruption: China evacuated 340,000 people as Typhoon Noul nears Guangdong, suspending classes, rail and work—another reminder of weather-driven strain on energy logistics. Corporate Energy Ops: Gandhar Oil Refinery reported temporary Silvassa plant disruption from heavy rains and flooding. Energy Finance/Markets: Court filings in the US highlight politicized clean-energy grant cuts, while oil-price volatility continues to feed inflation fears across markets.

Red Sea Oil Risk: Two Saudi crude tankers cleared Bab al-Mandeb despite a Houthi blockade threat, while Kpler data showed Hormuz traffic plunging and Red Sea crossings picking up—keeping shipping and fuel costs jittery. India–Iran Maritime Security: India reported an attack on an LPG tanker off Iran involving 28 Indian crew; all were safe, as New Delhi urged maximum caution around Yemen, Bab al-Mandeb and the southern Red Sea. Energy Diplomacy (China–ASEAN): China and ASEAN agreed to explore cooperation mechanisms to boost regional energy security and power interconnectivity amid Middle East spillovers. Power Project (South Korea): CGN started commercial operations at its Daesan Phase II gas plant, positioning hydrogen-blending “bridge” capacity for decarbonisation. Supply Chain Shock (Solar): Reuters says India’s push for domestic solar cells is idling panel makers due to component delays, threatening jobs and near-term capacity targets. Policy/Markets: Japan is considering reinstating naphtha stockpiling as Hormuz risks rise, while oil volatility stays tied to Iran and tariff headlines. Tech–Energy Link: China’s AI server boom is driving electricity demand and “green efficiency” priorities, reinforcing the region’s power-and-compute squeeze.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil prices stayed volatile around $100 as Red Sea and Hormuz risks kept supply fears alive, with Brent briefly easing after reports of possible US-Iran talk paths but traders still bracing for further strikes. Sanctions & Supply Chains: The US imposed fresh sanctions on Cuban energy and related firms, aiming to cut Cuba’s access to foreign currency and disrupt oil-sector operations. Philippines Power Costs: A Senate hearing in Manila urged a review of EPIRA after the Philippines was flagged as having the highest electricity rates in Southeast Asia, arguing reforms and privatization haven’t delivered cheaper power. Philippines–Indonesia Coal Crunch: Manila sought emergency assurances from Jakarta as Indonesia’s coal export overhaul could disrupt supplies to a grid heavily reliant on Indonesian coal. India Biofuels Push: Honda launched India’s first flex-fuel scooter (E85-capable), while Mercedes-Benz began rolling out E25-compliant vehicles ahead of higher ethanol blending. Japan Critical Minerals: Japan identified medium and heavy rare earths in deep-sea mud samples, setting up a full-scale mining test next year to reduce dependence on China. Energy Tech & Industry: China issued a 2026-2030 plan to expand integrated transport services, including faster multimodal freight transfers and more new-energy heavy trucks.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil surged back above $100 as Houthis attacked Saudi tankers and traders watched whether the Bab el-Mandeb route stays open, with rerouting and alternative loading points adding uncertainty for Asia-bound crude and refined products. Gas Market Repricing: Goldman Sachs lifted European natural gas forecasts, warning LNG supply recovery from Hormuz disruptions could be slower than expected—raising the odds of higher volatility for Asia-linked LNG pricing. India Energy Policy: India’s ACC battery storage PLI scheme still has zero incentive claims despite investments, underscoring that projects are stuck in commissioning and milestone hurdles. AI + Power Demand: Trump pushed a “ratepayer protection” pledge arguing AI data centers need new generation capacity and that tech firms should build and pay for power infrastructure, tying US competitiveness to energy buildout. FX and Inflation Spillovers: Japan’s yen slid to a 40-year low near 164 per dollar as oil-driven inflation fears grew, while Japan’s core CPI rose 1.6% in June—keeping pressure on BOJ decision-making. Regional Diplomacy: China’s Wang Yi told ASEAN to oppose “external interference” and warned against bloc confrontation, while ASEAN Plus Three flagged severe strain on food and energy security from Middle East instability. Protest Watch (Energy-Adjacent): India’s youth “cockroach” protests over exam leaks are set for talks with the government but will continue, adding domestic political risk as markets react to crude and tariff headlines.

Energy Diplomacy: Japan pledged deeper cooperation on energy security and online scam-fighting at an ASEAN-plus-three foreign ministers meeting in Manila, with participants stressing stronger regional supply networks amid West Asia disruption. Oil Market Shock: Brent surged back above $100/bbl after Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, compounding Strait of Hormuz risks; markets also grappled with renewed US-Iran tensions and inflation fears. Asia Financial Spillover: Asian equities were mixed but pressured by the oil spike; India’s bonds fell for a third straight session as crude neared $100, raising import-bill and rupee/inflation concerns. Supply Chain Re-routing: Chinese refiners reportedly increased purchases of sanctioned Russian crude as Middle East exports were throttled by shipping blockades and renewed attacks. Policy Response: India approved Phase II of strategic oil reserves, adding 6.5MT storage in Odisha and Karnataka. Regional Security & Trade: Indonesia urged ASEAN and Japan to boost support for Palestine via CEAPAD, while also calling for safer, open shipping lanes to protect energy and trade flows. Renewables Push: China released a renewable plan making wind/solar targets binding, aiming for a 53% jump in wind and solar generation over five years.

ASEAN Diplomacy & Energy Security: At the ASEAN Regional Forum in Manila, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pledged US$1.5bn in strategic support for Southeast Asia’s energy security, LNG market development and power-grid links, as ministers warned West Asia’s Iran conflict is spilling into energy and food supply chains. Oil Shock Risk: Fresh US-Iran and Houthi actions around Hormuz and the Red Sea pushed Brent above $95 and kept Asia markets jittery, with India’s rupee expected to stay under pressure as oil rallies feed inflation fears. India Gas Backup Plan: ONGC is planning India’s first strategic natural gas reserve, starting with testing storage in depleted gas wells to help lift gas’s share in the energy mix. China Renewables Push: China unveiled its 2026-2030 renewable plan and reported 4.04bn kW installed power capacity by end-June, with solar and wind continuing to expand—though a separate study warns grid bottlenecks could prolong coal reliance. Shipping & LNG Safety: China reported an LNG-fueled inland container vessel explosion on the Yangtze with one missing crew member, while Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Power Project Update: Nepal set a record for electricity export revenue in FY2082/83, while Sikkim’s NHPC tunnel disaster death toll rose to 22 as rescue teams continued.

Red Sea Shock to Asia’s Oil Flows: Houthis warned ships away from Saudi ports and a Bab el-Mandeb “embargo” triggered tanker U-turns toward the Suez, with some Asia-bound vessels rerouting and others pausing—raising fears of longer voyages and tighter supply as Brent pushed above $95 and analysts flag $100–$120 oil if the US-Iran standoff drags on. Policy Ripple Effects: Malaysia’s finance ministry raised unsubsidised RON97/RON95 and diesel for July 23–29, citing higher Brent after Hormuz shipping disruption risks. UAE Gas Investment: ADNOC approved a $6.2bn Umm Shaif Gas Cap project with TotalEnergies, Eni and CNPC, targeting 600+ mscfd and supporting LNG and gas self-sufficiency. India Nuclear Push: India advanced plans for indigenous small modular reactors, aiming for at least five units by 2033 as it targets more nuclear capacity. ASEAN Energy Focus: Cambodia’s FM called for faster ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement operationalization and progress on the ASEAN Power Grid and renewables to keep energy affordable and secure. Renewables for Health Access: UAE’s Zayed Sustainability Prize “Beyond2020” expanded solar-powered health centres in India, improving care for 200,000+ people.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil surged again as US-Iran strikes and renewed Houthi threats raised fears for Hormuz and the Red Sea, pushing Brent above $92 and rattling Asia markets while Japan’s import bill hit record highs and its trade deficit widened. FX & Import Pressure: The yen slid past 163 per dollar for the first time in decades, adding to Japan’s inflation squeeze as crude costs climbed. India Cost Squeeze: India’s state oil firms face a potential ₹75,000 crore compensation plan after selling petrol, diesel and LPG below market rates during the Iran war; consumer margins are also under pressure from higher input costs. Maritime Geopolitics: A Reuters look at how ports in South Asia are being pulled into US-China rivalry highlights how shipping routes are becoming strategic levers amid Middle East risk. Clean Mobility & Power Buildout: India’s public EV charging network topped 52,718 stations; Timor-Leste invited India into an LNG and refining push; and Japan and the UK explored cheaper floating wind buildouts using subsea robotics. Transport Decarbonisation: China is targeting electric trucks for at least 40% of new heavy-goods sales by 2030, accelerating a fast-growing shift in freight. Energy Transition Finance: Ather Energy raised ₹1,300 crore via QIP, while Serentica Renewables secured a $345m loan facility for India decarbonisation.

Red Sea Disruption: Two Saudi crude tankers bound for China and India turned back after Houthi warnings of a Red Sea blockade, adding to shipping risk around Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz. Oil Market Pressure: Saudi crude exports fell to the lowest on record in May as Iran-related conflict and regional shipping disruptions hit loadings; Brent pushed back above $90 as the US-Iran standoff dragged on. ASEAN Energy Security: ASEAN foreign ministers met in Manila, urging an immediate halt to Middle East fighting and calling for the safe reopening of Hormuz, with talk of an oil-sharing mechanism as regional dependence on Gulf supplies leaves economies exposed. India Supply Fallout: India’s state refiners suspended Iraqi crude loadings amid Hormuz risks, while India also shifted crude sourcing toward Russia and Latin America as Gulf flows tightened. Gas & Power Projects: ADNOC approved the $6.2bn Umm Shaif Gas Cap FID to boost UAE gas and LNG; Ireland is set to use a CO2-based battery to store renewable power for up to eight hours. Grid Storage in Action: Emerson will support Adani Green’s Khavda BESS with SCADA software for large-scale renewable integration.

ASEAN Diplomacy in Manila: Foreign ministers kick off the 59th ASEAN meeting amid Middle East flare-ups, South China Sea tensions and regional conflicts, with Wang Yi, Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov expected—keeping energy security high on the agenda. Oil Price Volatility: Markets track renewed US-Iran exchanges and Yemen’s Houthis warning of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia; Brent slips toward the high-$80s after a push above $90, easing pressure on equities but keeping supply-risk fears alive. India Macro & Energy Link: Deloitte flags India’s FY26-27 growth at 6.5–6.8% while warning geopolitical uncertainty could lift inflation and disrupt trade; separately, India’s rupee faces renewed pressure as crude worries return. Grid Reliability Gap: India’s green transition needs long-duration energy storage beyond current plans that mainly cover a few hours—critical for long heatwaves when solar and wind underperform. EV Charging Push: Hyundai Motor India expands access to 30,000+ charging points via the myHyundai app, aiming to reduce adoption friction. Regional Energy Development: Sri Lanka’s Trincomalee oil tank farm plans international bidding for 29 tanks, with India’s IOC holding a stake—an energy-security play for the region. Clean Power Buildout: China ramps pumped-storage hydro to support its green transition, targeting major new flexible capacity by 2030.

Middle East Oil Shock: Yemen’s Houthis announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, adding to Strait of Hormuz disruption fears and keeping Brent above $90—raising costs and risk premiums across Asia’s energy markets. India Power Security: India’s power ministry says thermal plants have 42.8 MT of coal (enough for ~14 days at 85% PLF), while Telangana reports only a few days of stock at some units—spotlighting uneven fuel buffers. Philippines Electricity Costs: DOE says June residential power rates hit the highest in Southeast Asia, driven by Visayas forced outages and reliance on costlier imported power. ASEAN Diplomacy: ASEAN foreign ministers meet in Manila with US and China at the table, focusing on West Asia spillovers for trade, energy and food security. Grid Flexibility in India: Tata Power won 324 MW/2,592 MWh pumped storage capacity in Maharashtra; Midwest Energy started commercial production at a 1.2 GWh BESS plant in Bengaluru. Renewables Build-Out: KPI Green Energy commissioned 200 MW solar at Coal India’s Khavda hub. Energy Trade/Infrastructure: West Africa formally endorsed the $25bn Nigeria–Morocco Atlantic gas pipeline, targeting construction from 2028. Policy/Politics Spillover: India’s “Cockroach Janta Party” protests over NEET exam irregularities were met with tear gas near parliament, underscoring domestic volatility alongside energy stress.